An inconvenient truth
Despite Biden's "war on coal," coal has been digging its own grave

An inconvenient truth

Even in 2011, when extraction of coal from the Powder River Basin had begun to decline, a virtual conveyor belt existed from mines such as the North Antelope, where this train is loading, and other mines. / Photo by Allen Best

Allen Best / Big Pivots - 06/06/2024

To some Wyoming politicos, the Biden administration’s recent announcement to ban new coal-leasing in the Powder River Basin was evidence of humanity’s descent to hell in a handbasket. Some in the environmental community were moved to hallelujahs.

It was a decision without consequence. Demand for coal has been sliding since 2008, and the slide will almost certainly accelerate.

Mining companies in the Powder River Basin can continue mining their existing leases until 2041 without exhausting them, according to an analysis by the BLM. They’re unlikely to do so. Just consider the market for Powder River coal in Colorado.

Coal plants along the Front Range mostly, if not entirely, burn coal from the Powder River. Two units, one each in Colorado Springs and Pueblo, were shut down in 2022. Four others from Fort Collins to Pueblo will cease operation by the end of 2030. Another, Pawnee, near Brush, will convert to gas by 2026.

Coal’s decline started long before Joe Biden was elected in 2020. By then, the shift was already well underway. 

Donald Trump, when campaigning in 2016, pledged to bring back “clean, beautiful coal.” He did nothing of the sort. Coal jobs declined 24% during the Trump presidency. And 60 coal companies declared bankruptcy between 2012-20. Among them were Arch and Peabody, two major operators in the Powder River Basin.

To help make sense of Wyoming’s path forward, I called a resident of Cheyenne, Larry Wolfe, who is retired now but for 30 years was a lawyer representing coal companies. “If you are going to be realistic about this, you have to look at some of these coal companies,” he told me. “They’re not great companies anymore. They used to be.”

I noticed Wolfe’s response to the statement of Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, who called the leasing decision part of Biden’s war on Wyoming. “This will kill jobs and could cost Wyoming hundreds of millions of dollars used to pay for public schools, roads and other essential services,” Barrasso said. “Cutting off access to our strongest resource surrenders America’s great economic advantage – to continue producing affordable, abundant and reliable American energy.”

Wyoming’s two other delegates in Congress echoed him: The United States will become dependent on energy from other countries. This will create more pollution in other countries who don’t have access to Wyoming’s “clean” coal. And so forth.

Environmental groups were supportive but restrained. “A monumental decision,” Earthjustice said. 

Powder River Basin Resource Council attorney Shannon Anderson confirmed my instinct. “This is a symbolically significant decision for the climate but in terms of practicality, it means absolutely nothing,” she told me. 

Anderson explained that, unlike oil and gas leasing on federal lands, coal companies must ask for leases. In the past, they commonly did so adjacent to existing mines. None have done so since 2012. Two pending leases have stalled since 2015, awaiting action.

My research suggests limited coal mining in northwest Colorado beyond 2028, when the last power plant there closes. West Elk, near Paonia, the state’s largest producer, may last longer. It has reserves of 10 to 12 years.

Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon has made carbon capture and sequestration his initiative. 

In Colorado, the Polis administration sees a more limited role for carbon capture, such as for sequestering emissions from ethanol plants. The Colorado Land Board seems to think this can constitute a revenue stream in years ahead. It has already leased lands near Yuma, Pueblo and in Weld County.

In Cheyenne, retired attorney Wolfe sees few of the active 14 coal mines continuing operations in years ahead. 

Allen Best produces Big Pivots, an e-magazine that tracks the pivots in energy and water in Colorado and – as in this case – sometimes beyond.