Out of the black hole
La Plata County is ready to move forward with a new radar station for the Four Corners.

Three years in the making, La Plata County is ready to move forward with a new radar station for the Four Corners, a blind spot when it comes to weather and radar modeling.

Referred to as a “black hole” in the weather world, the Four Corners has never had accurate forecasting methods, as hubs in Albuquerque, Flagstaff and Grand Junction take in data at too high of an elevation. The gap in information not only means an inability to forecast storms, it also makes it more difficult to predict water availability in an increasingly water-strapped West.

Over the years, efforts to bring a new radar station to the Four Corners have come up short. In summer 2018, however, destructive flooding in the 416 Fire burn scar highlighted the need to predict incoming storms that could pose a threat to homes north of Durango.

The following year, the major hurdle – funding – was solved when the State of Colorado awarded La Plata County $1.7 million to lead the radar project. But perhaps the most important question still loomed: Where to put the new station.

A number of sites have been evaluated in the ensuing years, and not just for the best coverage. County officials also have to consider other factors, such as road access and existing infrastructure like power, which can have a huge impact on the total cost of the project.

After some setbacks in the past few years, La Plata County told The Durango Telegraph this week the location has finally been selected: the Durango-La Plata County Airport.

“We think we have the right site,” County Manager Chuck Stevens said. “And there’s an overwhelming amount of support to bring this project to fruition.”

Need for a heads up

The push for a radar system for the Four Corners is not a new issue. For years, local officials have raised the alarm that the region’s existing weather stations cannot track storm systems in this corner of the state.

“It’s one of the most significant (blind spots) in the country,” Kenneth Howard, program manager and research meteorologist for the National Severe Storms Laboratory Center, said. 

In Grand Junction, for instance, the radar system on Grand Mesa is unable to pick up storms at elevations below 28,000 feet. In the San Juan Mountains, however, it’s not uncommon for storms to develop at around 14,000 feet.

“It puts us in a vulnerable position, because we can’t effectively forecast and know if storm cells are coming our way,” Stevens said.

After the Missionary Ridge Fire in 2002 created flash-flood risks off the burn scar to homes below, local officials made a concerted effort to bring proper equipment to Southwest Colorado. But the attempt never materialized.

In fact, it wasn’t until after destructive landslides damaged a number of homes in the wake of the 416 Fire that local officials had the leverage they needed. How could emergency officials warn residents of debris flows when there was no way to see where storms were headed?

“We’ve needed (a radar system) for years, but the 416 Fire really highlighted this gap,” Stevens said.

And the winner is...

Since receiving the grant money from the state’s Department of Local Affairs, Stevens said siting the radar system has been challenging. The goal: to find the best location to serve as many people as possible.

In September 2020, La Plata County and the Southern Ute Indian Tribe partnered to secure a site on tribal lands about 10 miles south of Durango, off U.S. Highway 550. The location, however, met pushback from some involved in the project who said not only were they caught off guard by the decision, but the site would only cover a small portion of the Four Corners. As a result, the county put the brakes on the project to research other potential sites.

“People challenged us to take a harder look and see if we could find a better site,” Stevens said. “And I think we did.”

About a dozen potential sites (some outside La Plata County) where whittled down to six. They were evaluated on a number of factors, including coverage area, road access, infrastructure and who owned the land. While some sites offered the best coverage, they lacked infrastructure, while others offered amenities but had blind spots that defeated the purpose of the project.

Ultimately, the county believes the Durango-La Plata County Airport strikes the best balance.

Ready for takeoff

With the help of the National Severe Storms Laboratory Center, test models show radar placed at the Durango-La Plata County Airport offers adequate coverage, especially to the southwest and north, where storms usually enter the region (though there is some interference to the south).

The airport, obviously, already has easy access to roads and power, fiber-optic, telecommunications and other infrastructure. Unlike other proposed locations, construction at the airport won’t require an extensive environmental review, and the land is already owned by La Plata County.

“Way back when, we did look at the airport, but I think in our efforts we lost sight of it,” Stevens said. “As we were dusting off everything … we said, let’s revisit the airport and do a deeper analysis.”

Radar is at its best when it scans as close to the ground as possible. The West, with its complex terrain, always poses a challenge for finding the right spot. “Radar can’t see through mountains,” Howard said.

The Durango-La Plata County Airport is at 6,685 feet (Durango, about 15 miles north, is at 6,512 feet), and it’s likely the radar system will need to be installed on a tower about 100-feet. And, county officials still need to find an exact spot for the radar on site and time construction so as not to impact airport operations.

The ‘Gold Standard’

Throughout the search, many people have called for the radar station to go atop a peak known as Bridge Timber Mountain, south of Durango (think the ridge between La Posta Road and Breen). From the top, at about 8,300 feet in elevation, one can see 125 miles in every direction. But, despite near-perfect coverage, Stevens said there are just too many complications to make Bridge Timber Mountain viable.

For one, there’s no infrastructure atop the mountain (LPEA estimated up to $1.25 million for a power line). And, the road up the east side of the ridge would require improvements and Southern Ute approval. To get up from the west, a new road would have to be built (the private landowners, for what it’s worth, were in favor of letting the county use their property).

“We worked really hard to make this work, because that site is the gold standard in terms of coverage,” Stevens said. “But it’s not as easy as saying, ‘There’s a mountaintop, let’s put a radar on top.’ We spent a year trying to figure it out and did everything in our power.”

Bob Wolff, former president of the board for Southwestern Water Conservation District, was one of those who favored Bridge Timber Mountain. Despite the complications, he believed the site would benefit the largest area, and therefore could draw in a host of other stakeholders who could help with the project.

“It was doable, it was just hard,” he said. “But any radar is better than no radar, and we’re perilously close to losing the grant money (which expires in 2024).”

Pretty, pretty good

Fortunately, Howard said there’s not a significant drop-off in coverage between Bridge Timber Mountain and the Durango-La Plata County Airport. Take into account the cost-savings building at the airport (money that can be used for a higher-quality radar system), and it’s clear why the airport received nearly unanimous support.

“The airport is going to be the best location when you take into account all the factors,” Howard said. “This is going to be a benefit to everyone.”

Ken Curtis, manager of the Dolores Water Conservancy District, said the district had considered dropping out of the project when the Southern Ute location was selected, because it would not have covered the Dolores River watershed. But now, the district is back on board. Among other benefits, an improved radar system will help the district better forecast water for spring run off.

“I appreciate they went back and realized this is a regional issue,” Curtis said. “I know they worked real hard looking at the pros and cons, and I think they selected the best choice.”

Steve Wolff (no relation), general manager of Southwestern Water Conservation District, also said the new radar will be critical in improving the timing of cloud seeding. “It will enable professionals a clearer vision of what’s coming in to prepare,” he said. “We’ll have a whole range of new data sets we haven’t had in this part of the state.”

Indeed, as the West continues to dry out, and more demand is placed on what water is available, Howard said filling one of the biggest remaining radar gaps will improve forecasting. “This is one more puzzle piece we’re filling in to improve models across the West,” he said.

Still some blind spots

If all goes according to plan, La Plata County hopes to put the project out to bid in the next few weeks and start construction by the end of the year. The goal, Stevens said, is to have the site operational by the end of 2023.

But in today’s chaotic world, not much goes according to plan. The pandemic has wreaked havoc with the supply chain, skilled labor and construction costs, which have soared in recent months. La Plata County has set aside about $400,000 for unexpected costs, putting the budget at $2.1 million. In addition, other interested parties, such as LPEA and CDOT, could help if the project runs over. “We have commitments from other stakeholders if we find ourselves in a shortfall,” Stevens said. “It’s a real concern.”

Once up and running, La Plata County will set up a model similar to a newly installed radar in the San Luis Valley, where involved parties put in every year for ongoing costs. For La Plata County, that’s expected to run about $40,000 a year.

All challenges aside, it feels the Four Corners is closer than ever to escaping the black hole.

“This is an important project, and people understand that,” Stevens said. “If I’m stopped at the grocery store these days, it’s always to talk about radar. And I feel we’re at a good point now with consensus from our stakeholder group, which is huge.”