Snow way out
Wet winter buys Colorado River Basin time, but challenges persist

Rafters, skiers and water managers rejoice! Our deep snowpack from this winter’s parade of storms has abated doomsday here in the Colorado River Basin (for now), and it’s also provided us with near certainty of high flows on many of the most beloved rivers in the region.

I, for one, am absolutely stoked that Mother Nature provided for us in our moment of need. But I am also wary that the public could become distracted from the long-term issue at hand: a century-long history of unsustainable consumption of water resources in the Colorado River Basin. If left unaddressed, this all but guarantees an eventual catastrophe in the system.

We have to acknowledge the reality that we need above-average flows just to fulfill the existing 16.5 million acre feet (MAF) of obligations in the Colorado River Compact. In the past 23 years, the river has had an average flow of only 12.4 MAF, so just to meet the demand in the system we would need 133% of average streamflows in the river. This structural deficit in allocation vs. average streamflow is exactly why the river system was pushed to the brink of collapse last year. Even though the incredibly deep snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin this year may seem bottomless (it’s at 133% of median for this time of year), the resulting runoff is likely to only surpass the extremely low bar of fulfilling the existing water rights within the system.

For comparison, longtime residents may remember the historic flood year of 1983, when Lake Powell became so full that the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation installed plywood at the top of Glen Canyon Dam to prevent water from lapping over it. This overabundance cause emergency reservoir releases to protect the dam, but also created a monumental deluge in the Grand Canyon that river runners will recall from the harrowing narrative in Kevin Fedarko’s “The Emerald Mile.” The total streamflow in the Colorado that year was estimated to be a whopping 26 MAF, which is astonishing, but we would need two years of that epic runoff just to fulfill all of the allocations in the system and refill Lake Mead to capacity.

Even with all of that said, I know it is important to appreciate these short-term wins. I am happy to know that more people will get the opportunity to experience what the rivers of the Southwest have to offer. I am relieved that water managers and policymakers will have another year to come to legitimate compromise to stabilize the system long term. Everyone who lives here in the basin can breathe a little easier knowing that the much-feared nightmare of Lake Powell reaching minimum power pool is not likely to occur for at least another year. 

However, we must not be lulled into complacency by an amazing boating season and modest reservoir gains. The time for action on this issue was years ago. The legally sanctioned overconsumption of water within the basin means that even if we did receive a legendary snowpack twice that of 1983, and Lake Mead was suddenly restored to capacity, it would only be a matter of time before we found ourselves in the same predicament.

This reality only becomes more unsettling when one considers how badly the water deficit will be exacerbated as a result of climate change. Climate science clearly indicates that while we may continue to experience the occasional extremely high precipitation year, the region is trending toward becoming drier and warmer overall. Warmer temps can mean that plants and soils consume more of our precious precipitation before it can be harnessed for human use. Take last year for example: we had 91% of average snowpack, but an unusually warm and dry spring resulted in only 58% of average streamflows in the river. Some studies indicate that this could be our new reality, and streamflows within the basin could diminish by up to 50% by the end of the century.

As a young person trying to plan a future in this region, I can only hope the urgent push to address the inherent deficit within the compact does not lose steam because of La Niña’s endless bounty this winter.

But most of all, I want people in this area to cherish this rare instance of water abundance in our arid home.

Hopefully, we can find a long-term appreciation for this vital resource that sustains all of our communities here in the Southwest.

Then, the BuRec and policymakers will know that our eyes are still on them, and public attention will remain focused until the states reach a viable compromise for reasonable reductions throughout the basin.

Teal Lehto is an FLC graduate and longtime Durango resident who is best known for her TikTok platform (@WesternWaterGirl) dedicated to raising awareness for water resource issues in the Southwest. ?