A nothing sandwich

It’s never too early to start thinking about ski season. And with the inferno that was August behind us, the good folks at Open Snow have gone out on their annual limb to bring us the 2025-26 winter season outlook. 

Last week, Open Snow released its highly anticipated  interpretation of NOAA’s long-range winter forecast, albeit with a grain of salt: “Long-range forecasts are rarely accurate. These forecasts cover three months, but we know that skiing quality improves and degrades with storm cycles that last a few days to a week.”

Bottom line: Southwest Colorado is looking at a possible repeat of last winter. (Sorry – don’t kill the messenger.) According to the all-important ENSO sea surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, which dictate either a La Niña (cooler temps) or El Niño (warmer temps) phase, we are stuck once again in neutral, aka “La Nada.”

Last winter was a weak La Niña, and we have been in a neutral phase for most of the summer, which is expected to continue at least through October. For the upcoming winter, there's a 45% chance water temps will be below average (La Niña) and a 48% chance they will be near average (neutral).

“For the upcoming 2025-26 winter season, we're still monitoring whether it will be a neutral or a weak La Niña,” Open Snow meteorologist Sam Collentine wrote.

For the record, although strong El Niños typically favor Southwest Colorado, we have also had some very good (2020 anyone?) and not so good (2002) La Niña winters as well.

While a weak La Niña or neutral phase does not bode well for us in the banana belt, it is good news for Eastern Idaho, Montana and Wyoming, which are all in the "Probability of Above-Normal” precipitation zone. This outlook matches the general storm track of previous weak La Niña or ENSO-neutral winters.

As for temperatures, it is expected to be a warm one for the majority of the southern half of the United States, including much of California, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, the Mid-Atlantic and up into New England. Washington and northern Oregon are the only regions in the "Probability of Below-Normal” temperature zone.

But, as we all know, weather can be a fickle thing – especially in these parts. Stay tuned to OpenSnow for more updates as winter gets closer (and in the meantime, maybe break out that naked snow dance again.)